Physicist Ned Nikolov and retired meteorologist Karl Zeller developed a mathematical model that accurately predicts the surface temperature of rocky planets such as Mars, Venus or Moon. Scientists claim that model works also for Earth. And here comes the best part. The model indicates that the effect of global warming of our planet is rather due to solar radiation, than human activity. Check this out!
Fake names for publications
In order to publish their papers, both Nikolov and Zeller, had to write articles under the names Den Volokin and Lark ReLlez. You can notice that their nicknames read in reverse order, form their real names. They did it on purpose as before publication process, the pair’s previous work sparked very intense – and sometimes misunderstood, they said – discussion in the climate-skeptic blogosphere. They were afraid that “journal editors and reviewers would reject our manuscripts outright after Googling our names and reading the online discussion”- wrote Volkin as a response to The Washington Post article . In consequence, this plan worked for their two papers published in 2014 and 2015.
Incorrect application of the radiation law to a sphere
In their first article from 2014, Volokin and ReLlez provided mathematical and empirical evidence that the effect of nearly 1-bar atmosphere on Earth’s average temperature is around 90 °C. Earlier, the effect of having an atmosphere has been estimated to increase the Earth’s average temperature by 33 °C. The scientists paid attention that the 33 °C estimate referred to in virtually all meteorology or climate textbooks for the past 40 years.
Why so big difference?
The found that this significant difference has been a result of incorrect application of the Stefan-Boltzmann radiation law to a sphere. In addition, their study demonstrated that the atmospheric thermal effect has a significant non-radiative component, which is controlled by air pressure. Based on these findings, scientists got to the conclusion that the contribution of greenhouse gasses to Earth’s fluctuating temperature is still uncertain and needs further research.
Model that predicts accurately the mean global temperatures of other planets
The same as before, scientists decided to submit their latest work under pseudonyms. As before, their article passed peer review, and on Aug. 18, 2015, the journal Advances in Space Research published the study online. But after some time, editors found out about the pseudonyms and they decided to quickly withdrew the article from the journal site. One can say that the debate about over the ethics of publishing under a pseudonym has begun.
Luckily, I was able to find this paper online, you can download it here by coping this link to your web browsers:
One question arises to me, if the paper was publised under pseudonyms, why the journal simply did not changed pseudonyms to real names, but instead decided to withdraw the paper completely?
What did they find?
Volokin and ReLlez or rather Ned Nikolov and Karl Zeller, developed a new macro-level model using data from six celestial bodies in our solar system (i.e., Venus, Moon, Earth, Mars, Titan, and Triton). Their model uses only two factors, i.e. electromagnetic radiation coming from the sun and the atmospheric pressure on the surface. Amazingly, their model predicted extraordinarily precise (figure below) the mean global temperatures of rocky planets (with diverse atmospheres). Scientists pointed that observed variation of global planetary temperatures across the solar system can be neither satisfactorily predicted by the concentration nor the partial pressure of greenhouse gasses. This means that it is very likely that global warming is a product of rather sun’s radiation than man-made carbon emissions!
In addition, their model fully explains the previously mentioned ~90 °C atmospheric effect as a function of atmospheric pressure and solar irradiance.
According to the authors:
“The new model displays characteristics of an emergent macro-level thermodynamic relationship heretofore unbeknown to science that deserves further investigation and possibly a theoretical interpretation.”
The last interesting thing about this research was that both authors worked together at the U.S. Forest Service. However, for these two mentioned papers they were working in off hours. Also, they did not receive any federal funding or support, so the scientific independence has not been violated.
Forestry and global warming
David South (Emeritus Professor from Auburn University, USA) published recently an open letter to the editor of New Zealand Journal of Forest Science. You can find it here:
Letter to the editor by David South. He expressed his view concerning the impacts of the studies of Volokin and ReLlez on forestry. He wrote:
“Readers should be aware that atmospheric science is not set in stone; there is plenty of room for the evolution of our understanding on this complex topic”.
In addition he paid attention that we should question again the theoretical foundation of the “greenhouse” theory and research more carefully the impacts of large-scale carbon sequestration projects, especially in forestry, on the global mean temperature.
Photo credit: NASA